Sargent經濟學的十二堂課

從普通人的自由主義那裏讀到一篇有趣的畢業演講稿，來自今年(2011)得到諾貝爾經濟獎的Thomas Sargent，翻譯一下，做為記錄分享。

經濟學是組織化的普通常識，以下是這個美麗的學科教我們的一些有價值的課。
Economics is organized common sense. Here is a short list of valuable
lessons that our beautiful subject teaches.

1.很多我們冀望的其實是不可得的
1. Many things that are desirable are not feasible.

2.個人與社群都面臨取捨選擇
2. Individuals and communities face trade-offs.

3.別人比我們清楚，他們自己的能力、努力和偏好
3. Other people have more information about their abilities, their efforts,
and their preferences than you do.

4.每個人都受誘因影響，包括你想幫助的人，這就是社會安全網，總是不能達到預期的效果的原因。
4. Everyone responds to incentives, including people you want to help. That
is why social safety nets don’t always end up working as intended.

5.公平與效率之間存在取捨的問題
5. There are tradeoffs between equality and efficiency.

6.在均衡的競賽或經濟體中，人都滿足於自己的選擇，因此善意的外部人很難去改變什麼，不論是改好或改壞
6. In an equilibrium of a game or an economy, people are satisfied with their
choices. That is why it is difficult for well meaning outsiders to change
things for better or worse.

7.未來，你也會受誘因影響，這是為何你會不敢做出承諾，即便你說了，也沒有人相信你的承諾，因為他們知道，在未來，實踐承諾將不是對你有利的事。這堂課要教我們，在你做出承諾之前，思考如果環境條件改變了，你是否還會願意去實踐諾言，唯有如此，我們才能建立信譽。
7. In the future, you too will respond to incentives. That is why there are
some promises that you’d like to make but can’t. No one will believe those
promises because they know that later it will not be in your interest to
deliver. The lesson here is this: before you make a promise, think about
whether you will want to keep it if and when your circumstances change.
This is how you earn a reputation.

8.政府與選民也受誘因影響，這是為何政府有時會倒債，或是不遵守過去的承諾。
8. Governments and voters respond to incentives too. That is why gov-
ernments sometimes default on loans and other promises that they have
made.

9.一代人將成本負擔轉移給下一代人是可行的，這就是政府國債與美式社會安全所在做的方法(新加坡的方式則否)
9. It is feasible for one generation to shift costs to subsequent ones. That is
what national government debts and the U.S. social security system do
(but not the social security system of Singapore).

10.當政府花錢，他的國民最終要付出，不是今天就是明天，不是直接加稅，就是間接的通貨膨脹
10. When a government spends, its citizens eventually pay, either today or
tomorrow, either through explicit taxes or implicit ones like inflation.

11.多數人想要別人去付公共財和政府的移轉所得(特別是移轉所得給他們自己)
11. Most people want other people to pay for public goods and government
transfers (especially transfers to themselves).

12.因為市場價格是所有交易者資訊的加總累計，要預測股價、利率和匯率都是困難的
12. Because market prices aggregate traders’ information, it is difficult to
forecast stock prices and interest rates and exchange rates.