2005/09/19

對股票投資期限的錯誤感覺

從學術的研究報告中我們常常讀到,長期而言,股票投資的實質報酬率,遠遠高於其他的投資工具,例如長年期公債債券、定存等,但是投資資人往往對股票投資期限有個錯誤的感覺,誤以為自己投資股票的期間只有三五年,不認為自己會長期持有股票,然而真正持有股票的投資期限,其實遠比一般人自己以為的長的多,對一位三十歲的投資人,若預期活到八十歲,他可能的最大投資股票期限為五十年,就算到六十歲退休之後,完全不投資股票,則也有三十年的投資期間,如果你從二十歲就開始投資股市,則你在股市的投資期限就更久了。以這樣的投資期限來看,投資股市絕對是優於投資債券。

4 則留言:

value 提到...

投資股票的報酬率,決定於股市的整體價值和市值之間的關係,過去股市的歷史報酬,無法決定未來的報酬。
預測未來的報酬必須回答
1.目前股價便宜嗎?
2.未來的利率
3.未來企業的獲利
以我的看法
1.目前股價不便宜
Taiwan focuses on commodity type businesses and high capital needs businesses. That's the worst type of business from Mr. Buffett's viewpoint. Taiwan won't prosper. The current interest rate is very low. Low interest rate will be support of current stock price level.
2.I can not forecast the interest rate.
3.Profit won't soar for higher competition of commodity type business.
我覺得我們未來的十年可能接近日本過去的十年,而不是美國過去的十年。

pjhuang 提到...

如果不考慮不同的投資方式,單就投資股市這件事來說,只要能認同我們的投資期限其實比我想像的長的多,不是十年,而是三十年以上,則股市所代表的企業精神與獲利能力,股市還是各種投資工具中,最適合長期投資的。

value 提到...

We should consider the negative side of stock market, too.
1. How much money goes to the pocket of employees for employees' dividends?
2. How much money goes to the pocket of insiders and managers?
3. How much money goes to the brokers and government?
3. How much money goes to the pocket of people who help you invest?
Most investors in stock market in Taiwan are losers?
I recommend Know-nothing investors just put their money into savings account in Taiwan.

value 提到...

Let my try to answer this question
1. 1000億 for 員工分紅及董監酬勞
2. Unknown for a lot of methods for them to take away money.
3. 證交稅預算900億元(0.3%),預估交易費用約600億元(0.2%)
4. Unknown
Therefore, item 1+item 3. That's 2500億. 股市市值140000億元. That's 1.78%. I believe that 散戶付的比重較重,應達2%.

關於作者:認證理財顧問黃柏仁,致力於上班族之理財規劃服務,按這裡到上班族投資理財部落格閱讀更多文章
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